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Is the US Economy in a Recession?


In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. 1  Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. As a Laboratory Corp. of America employee, it is imperative to keep track of current events that may affect your workplace.

Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful for Laboratory Corp. of America employees and retirees to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. As a Laboratory Corp. of America employee looking to allocate assets into the market, understanding the metrics for recessions and expansions is of utmost importance.

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. 4

As a Laboratory Corp. of America employee, it is important to understand that to determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.5 This information is useful for Laboratory Corp. of America employees making investment decisions as it enlightens the concept of market timing and break down how information is circulated.


Strong Employment
As a Laboratory Corp. of America employee, you may have noticed how over the last few months economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June. 6  Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month. 7  The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).

The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969. 9  Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows. 10  In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. 11  As a Fortune 500 employee, it is imperative to take advantage of this distinguishing metric and re-evaluate your outlook on the market and the economy.

Negative GDP Growth
As a Laboratory Corp. of America employee, it is important to know the common definition of a recession (a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters), and how the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter. 12  Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly. Understanding how a recession is defined is certainly beneficial for those in Laboratory Corp. of America companies as it allows for educated moves in the market during times where most retail investors are considerably more uncertain.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. Despite that, as a Laboratory Corp. of America employee it is important to consider how the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data. 13

Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter. 14

 With that under consideration, those employed in Laboratory Corp. of America companies should consider how the Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories. 15  Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels. 16  Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.

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The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for Laboratory Corp. of America employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. 17  Laboratory Corp. of America employees may notice how wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market. 18  If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July. 19  It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.

No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023. 20  If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for Laboratory Corp. of America employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months. 21  To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022

 

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
Plan Names and Details: Pension Plan Name: Laboratory Corp. of America does not offer a traditional pension plan. Instead, the company provides a 401(k) plan for its employees. 401(k) Plan Name: Laboratory Corp. of America 401(k) Plan. Eligibility and Qualification: 401(k) Plan Eligibility: Employees become eligible to participate in the Laboratory Corp. of America 401(k) Plan after completing 30 days of employment. Years of Service and Age Qualification: There are no specific age or service requirements to qualify for the 401(k) plan. All employees who meet the basic eligibility criteria can participate. Pension Formula: Pension Plan Formula: As Laboratory Corp. of America does not offer a pension plan, there is no pension formula to provide.
News on Restructuring and Layoffs: LabCorp has been undergoing significant restructuring in 2023, which included a notable reduction in workforce. In the first half of 2023, LabCorp announced a series of layoffs impacting various departments, aimed at optimizing operational efficiency and reducing costs. This move was part of a broader strategy to streamline operations amidst a challenging economic environment. News on Company Benefits and Pension Changes: Alongside layoffs, LabCorp has made adjustments to its employee benefits package, including changes to retirement plans. The company has revised its 401(k) matching contributions, reducing the percentage of employer contributions. Additionally, there have been updates to the pension plan, with changes in the vesting schedule and benefit formulas. These adjustments are crucial for employees to understand, especially given the current investment and tax environment, which could impact retirement planning and financial stability.
Laboratory Corp. of America provides stock options and RSUs as part of its compensation package. Stock options typically vest over a period of time, with specific vesting schedules detailed in individual grant agreements. RSUs are granted based on performance and time-based vesting criteria, with awards given to senior executives and key employees.
Laboratory Corp. of America (LabCorp) offers a range of health benefits that emphasize comprehensive coverage for its employees. In 2022, LabCorp provided various health plans, including Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) and High Deductible Health Plans (HDHPs), designed to cater to different needs and preferences. These plans typically include benefits such as preventive care, telemedicine services, and access to a broad network of healthcare providers. The company also includes health savings accounts (HSAs) and flexible spending accounts (FSAs) to help employees manage out-of-pocket costs. For 2023 and 2024, LabCorp continued to enhance its health benefits by integrating wellness programs, mental health support, and expanded coverage options to align with evolving employee needs and regulatory changes.
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