Table of Contents
Disclosures
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This article offers general information for Stanley Black & Decker employees and retirees and should not be acted upon without obtaining specific advice from a qualified professional. The information is not intended as benefit, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor the solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Financial Decision-making in Extremely Uncertain Times
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Making Judgments
Upon years of working with Stanley Black & Decker employees and retirees, we have identified several topics that may prove beneficial for you to understand.
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Behavioral retirement advice and what it is.
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Three highly uncertain historical timeframes.
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The brain's decision-making process.
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The role of emotional intelligence in better financial decision-making.
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Behavioral finance and the role of heuristics.
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How to modify behavior – the 4 Rs.
Extreme Turmoil
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We will be evaluating financial and retirement decision-making for Stanley Black & Decker employees during periods of extreme turmoil.
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Addressed historical time frames are comprised of events occurring in the past two decades:
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2000-2002 –The Tech/Telcom Bubble and 9/11
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2008-2009 –The Financial Crisis and the housing bubble
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2020-Ongoing–COVID-19 pandemic and downturn
Decision-Based Finance
Integrates retirement planning and modern portfolio theory with recent findings in the fields of neuro economics and behavioral finance to achieve an emotional state for making better financial decisions.
Behavioral Finance Theory
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An emerging field confronting us with our deeply irrational selves
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The influence of psychology on the behavior of investors and it's subsequent effect on the markets
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Help to explain how we make choices and decisions
Conventional Financial Theory
Conventional finance is predicated on the belief that
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Both the market and investors are rational and unemotional
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Investors make decisions without being biased by emotions
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Investors have self-control and are not confused by cognitive errors and information processing errors
Behavioral Finance Theory
Traits of behavioral finance:
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Investors are treated as “normal” not “rational”
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Investors have limits to their self-control
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Investors are influenced by their own biases
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Investors make cognitive errors that can lead to wrong decisions
Three Uncertain Periods:
S&P 500 Index
Featured Video
Articles you may find interesting:
- Corporate Employees: 8 Factors When Choosing a Mutual Fund
- Use of Escrow Accounts: Divorce
- Medicare Open Enrollment for Corporate Employees: Cost Changes in 2024!
- Stages of Retirement for Corporate Employees
- 7 Things to Consider Before Leaving Your Company
- How Are Workers Impacted by Inflation & Rising Interest Rates?
- Lump-Sum vs Annuity and Rising Interest Rates
- Internal Revenue Code Section 409A (Governing Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plans)
- Corporate Employees: Do NOT Believe These 6 Retirement Myths!
- 401K, Social Security, Pension – How to Maximize Your Options
- Have You Looked at Your 401(k) Plan Recently?
- 11 Questions You Should Ask Yourself When Planning for Retirement
- Corporate Employees: 8 Factors When Choosing a Mutual Fund
- Use of Escrow Accounts: Divorce
- Medicare Open Enrollment for Corporate Employees: Cost Changes in 2024!
- Stages of Retirement for Corporate Employees
- 7 Things to Consider Before Leaving Your Company
- How Are Workers Impacted by Inflation & Rising Interest Rates?
- Lump-Sum vs Annuity and Rising Interest Rates
- Internal Revenue Code Section 409A (Governing Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plans)
- Corporate Employees: Do NOT Believe These 6 Retirement Myths!
- 401K, Social Security, Pension – How to Maximize Your Options
- Have You Looked at Your 401(k) Plan Recently?
- 11 Questions You Should Ask Yourself When Planning for Retirement
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Per Week
Total U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
GDP Annualized Growth Rate
During the last 75.75 years (since 1945) there have been 190 declines of 5% or greater.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s Corporation; Copyright 2020 Crandall, Pierce & Company
The Market's Reaction to a Financial Crisis
Cumulative total return of a balanced strategy: 60% stocks, 40% bonds
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In US dollars. Represents cumulative total returns of a balanced strategy invested on the first day of the following calendar month of the event noted. Balanced Strategy: 12% S&P 500 Index, 12% Dimensional US Large Cap Value Index, 6% Dow Jones US Select REIT Index, 6% Dimensional International Value Index, 6% Dimensional US Small Cap Index, 6% Dimensional US Small Cap Value Index, 3% Dimensional International Small Cap Index, 3% Dimensional International Small Cap Value Index, 2.4% Dimensional Emerging Markets Small Index, 1.8% Dimensional Emerging Markets Value Index, 1.8% Dimensional Emerging Markets Index, 10% Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years, 10% FTSE World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged), 10% FTSE World Government Bond Index 1-3 Years (hedged), 10% ICE BofAML1-Year US Treasury Note Index. Assumes monthly rebalancing. For illustrative purposes only. S&P and Dow Jones data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. ICE BofAMLindex data © 2019 ICE Data Indices, LLC. FTSE fixed income indices © 2019 FTSE Fixed Income LLC. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Dimensional indices use CRSP and Compustat data.
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Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. See the “Balanced Strategy Disclosure and Index Descriptions” pages in the Appendix for additional information.
“When dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.”
-Dale Carnegie
Physiology of the Brain
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The human brain has not changed much in terms of size and weight
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More of history finds humans as hunter-gatherers and farmers
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Scanning the horizon for what might eat us was more important than evolving towards making complex financial decisions
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Our brains are designed better for these primitive tasks
The Three Sections of the Brain
Outer layer – rational center
It handles complicated, cognitive processes like objective rational decision-making; the cerebral cortex
Middle layer –the emotional center
The limbic system & the amygdala translates outside stimulus into emotions
Inner layer –habit center
Not thinking; we just do it automatically In addition to breathing & body functions, we form habits
Brain Anatomy
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Layers of the brain communicate via neural pathways and chemicals
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Emotions like fear and anxiety can be so powerful that they have the effect of disabling the rational center of the brain
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With stimulus, the brain processes emotions faster than a rational thought
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The quality of decisions is impaired when our brains act reflexively
Brain Tendencies
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Brains are better wired for survival than to deal with complex financial decisions
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The brain has evolved slowly and is better suited to life 10,000 years ago and is not suited to keep up with the changes of the last 100 years
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Technology makes it very easy to impulsively spend and invest. Two potentially dangerous things to do impulsively.
Brain Systems
Reward System
Produces Dopamine
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Chemical plays a role in motivational component of behavior, we sense pleasure
Danger System
Adrenal gland produces cortisol (stress) & adrenaline
- Preparing the body to fight, flight (flee the danger we are facing) or freeze
Emotional Brain
Stock market volatility
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While emotionally painful, is not life-threatening
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Our nature is to sacrifice the accuracy of our rational brain for the speed of the emotional brain
Greed ensues when the pleasure of making and spending money creates the desire for more
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This is how we can get a closet full of shoes
Adapting Your Brain
The Brain Can Be Changed
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We can change how we respond to financial situations
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Neuroscientists refer to the brain as “plastic”
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Neuroplasticity means we can create new habits so that when faced with challenging financial situations we can respond in ways that are in our best long-term interests
Financial Choices
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Most people do not like thinking about finances
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Retirement decisions are analytical, cold, and oftentimes abstract
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Linking financial decisions to a financial life plan helps people make decisions in the pursuit of a satisfying happy life after Stanley Black & Decker.
“Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it.”
-Charles R. Swindoll
Emotional Intelligence Development and Maintenance
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Emotional Intelligence
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The ability to perceive and control one’s emotions and use those emotions to guide thought and behavior
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Many experts suggest emotional intelligence correlates better to happiness and success than traditional IQ
IQ vs EI
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IQ = Brain Processing Power
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EI = Relating & Communicating with Others
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Book Smarts vs. Street Smarts
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Braininess vs. Savvy
Ei 4 Unique Skill Sets
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Self-Awareness
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Self-Management
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Social Awareness
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Relationship Management
Self-awareness is the First Skill Set Required for Achieving Ei
Noticing our emotions and giving ourselves an accurate assessment
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Pivotal to understanding ourselves
What is Mindfullness?
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Is a tool to help cultivate self-awareness
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Emotional self-assessment is easiest when we are alone, quiet, relaxed and inward
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Meditation can help cultivate this state
Being mindful benefits
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Shown to reduce stress and anxiety
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Helps us to accept our experiences
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Improves sleep quality
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Helps with better concentration
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Improves memory
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Cultivates greater internal optimism
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Engenders self-confidence and self-worth
Engaging in Mindfullness
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Focus on breathing, listening (scanning) to your body
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Notice thoughts without judgements
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Examine underlying assumptions and beliefs
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Connect feelings and thoughts for better decision making
Self-Management is the second skill set needed to achieve EI
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Use emotions to assist thinking, including changes to our environment
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Recognizing the role emotions play in decision making
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Investors with good self-management skills have an increased ability to monitor their emotions
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They can then be flexible and adaptable when responding to changing situations
Social Awareness is the third skill set in achieving EI
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The ability to identify and understand another’s emotions
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The nuts and bolts of financial planning and investment management are improved by effective and open dialogue
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Better communication improves outcomes
Social Awareness
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Having empathy and listening intently fosters self-reflection and openness in the listener
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Helps to be able to see others’ contributions and how to effectively build relationships
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Fosters better communication between partners/spouses
Relationship Management is the fourth skill set in achieving EI
Effective relationship management involves using EI in interactions to construct positive outcomes
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Inspirational leadership
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Strategic decision making
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Cultivating a team environment
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Consensus building
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Community connections and strong relationships
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Conflict management skills
Financial Self-Control & Self-Management
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Financial self-control recognizes that “things” do not equal happiness
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Wealth is income not spent, it is deferred consumption
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Material consumption can distract us from activities that do improve happiness and quality of life
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A simple lifestyle is much easier and less stressful to maintain
Errors and Biases in Decision-Making
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Heuristics
Emotional and impulsive decision making relies on certain mental short-cuts to make quick decisions
They rely upon people’s biases developed from:
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Life experiences
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Preferences
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Perspectives
Heuristics Very Commonly Biased
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They could lead to incorrect estimates and sometimes serious errors
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Used to simplify complex problems that might otherwise require more time and consideration
Recognize your Biases
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We all have mental biases; they are short cuts for the many thousands of daily decisions we make
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Some mental biases cause us to ignore key information
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Or attach too much importance to one piece of information
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Or encourage decisions that are misguided by biases
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These are entirely natural and unavoidable but the more skilled we are at recognizing these biases, the better our financial decision making
Four Kinds of Bias
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Self-Deception– Tricking ourselves into thinking we know more than we do
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We are closed off to information that we need to make an informed decision
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Simplification– We make shortcuts and oversimplify.
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Emotion– Decisions made when we are angry, sad, happy, etc.
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Affects the types of decisions we make
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Social influence – How we are influenced by others
Myopic Loss Aversion
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Most investors suffer from myopic loss aversion
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The tendency to compare the performance of their portfolio from the perspective of avoiding a possible loss rather than potential gain
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They have a greater sensitivity to losses than gains and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently
Don't Overthink
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Weighting past experiences too much in decision making
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Similarity of objects is confused with the probability of an outcome
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Using stereotypes that color decision making
In US dollars. Performance data is historical and does not predict future returns. Indices not available for direct investment. See index descriptions in the appendix.
Don't be Overconfident
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Putting too much emphasis on one’s predictive abilities and knowing what the future holds
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Illusion of control –people think they have control over a situation when in fact they don’t
Over-Confidence
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Timing optimism –where people overestimate how quickly they can accumulate wealth over time, overestimate security selection and market timing
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Desirability effect –when people overestimate the odds of something happening because the outcome is preferable to the alternatives “wishful thinking”
Nasdaq Composite: 2010-2021
Anchoring
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Failing to adjust to changing or new information
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Heuristic revealed by behavioral finance
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Rely too much on pre-existing information and first data points
Confirmation Bias
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Look for confirming rather than disconfirming evidence
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Looking for information that agrees with us (“echo chamber”)
Political Affiliation Influences Economic Perception
Percentage of U.S. adults who rate national economic conditions as excellent or good
Pew Research Center, July 2019, “Public’s Views of Nation’s Economy Remain Positive and Deeply Partisan.”
Heuristics Availability
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Describes the way in which people assess the probability of an event by the ease with which they can remember a similar event
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The more easily we recall something from memory the more likely it is to be true
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The common effect leads us to believe other people think like we do because our opinion dominates our considerations
Illusion of Money
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Investors think in nominal results without figuring in inflation
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They are making investment decisions while not looking at real returns
Bias Toward the Status Quo
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When forced to make a complex decision with uncertainty, people tend to procrastinate and delay their decision
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Often happens when it comes to saving for retirement
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Doing nothing is easier
The Narrative Fallacy
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Make a decision based on the way information is presented as opposed to facts themselves
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We love stories and we let our reference for a good story cloud the facts and our ability to make rational decisions
Emotions and Bias: A Dangerous Mix
How is Your Investor Psyche
Risk Tolerance
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People who are less worried when taking greater levels of risk are considered to have a high-risk tolerance
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People who are less willing to take risk are risk averse
Risk Capacity
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A person’s ability to take financial risk based on their financial resources
Financial Capability
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Defined as an individual's capacity based on financial knowledge, skills and access to manage resources effectively
Reducing Bias
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Decision readiness is impacted by fatigue, distractions, visceral influences and individual differences
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To reduce biases, we must modify the decision maker
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Spend time educating yourself, take an alternative view and use proven checklists
How to Plan for Uncertain Times
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Life is Full of Unknown Variables
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There are many things we do not control and admitting this is a necessary first step in being able to plan for it
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We cannot know when our life or that of a family member will be significantly changed
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We cannot know when our employment will be disrupted
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We cannot know what is going to happen with the overall economy, stock/bond market, real estate
Planning for Uncertainty
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Most Stanley Black & Decker employees desire to make sense out of our lives, so we set goals
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Being deliberate about aligning values to goals helps keep us on task toward building a meaningful life
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Writing down goals enhances our commitment and makes us responsible for the choices we make
Researchers Say You’re
42% more likely to act on your goals if you write them down.
Certainty in the Face of Uncertainty
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There is no shortage of opinions and prognostications, and it is natural to want to know the future, but it is important to know that there is a certainty of uncertainty
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Manage resources in an “all weather” way and build in a “margin of error”
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Account for the certainty of uncertainty and reduce the temptation of trying to know the future will help to better manage the potential outcomes
How To Protect yourself
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Being extremely well-diversified across a variety of financial instruments
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Using debt only very prudently
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Use insurance to transfer some of the risks of uncertainty to an insurance company
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Have a financial plan but know that things will not go exactly according to plan. You’ll change.
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Consider these five Elements: